The Ottawa Senators' season is on the line when they host the Toronto Maple Leafs on Saturday. Toronto boasts a commanding 3-0 series lead ahead of Saturday's matchup, having dominated Game 1 to a 6-2 tune before taking Games 2 and 3 by a score of 3-2, both of which came in overtime. There have been four teams in NHL history that have come back from 3-0 series deficits to advance, with the last one coming in 2014 by the Los Angeles Kings. If the Senators want to have any chance of being the fifth team in league history to have that distinction, they must win on Saturday.
The Senators are -113 money-line favorites on home ice (bet $113 to win $100), according to SportsLine consensus odds, and the Maple Leafs aren't far behind at -107. The over/under is 5.5 total goals.
Both teams have some notable stars in this series, with Toronto headlined by Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. Marner had a stellar 2024-25 campaign, which was the first 100-point season of his career. Matthews missed 15 games and had his lowest point total since the shortened 2020-21 season. Those two Maple Leafs stars are key parts of Saturday's NHL same-game parlay, which was created using the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NHL game 10,000 times, and you can see all of the model's top-rated prop picks for every game under the "Prop Picks" tab. There are ratings of up to five stars assigned for all sorts of different prop bets for players. Those picks can be key for creating winning parlays on DraftKings, FanDuel, PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy or Sleeper Fantasy as well as same-game parlays on any available betting site.
Here are the SportsLine model's three top-rated player prop picks for Saturday's Maple Leafs-Senators Game 4 matchup, including what the payout would be if they were put into a same-game parlay.
Maple Leafs-Senators SGP (+348)
- Mitch Marner Under 1.5 total points (-250): 5 stars
- Auston Matthews Under 1.5 total points (-240): 4.5 stars
- Tim Stutzle Under 0.5 total points (+126): 4 stars
The model feels very confident Marner and Matthews will each be held Under 1.5 total points for Saturday's contest, with those props coming in as the top-rated plays for this game. Marner and Matthews have six and five points, respectively this series, but the model projects Marner to have 0.3 points and Matthews to record 0.5 in Game 4. Both Marner and Matthews have each finished Under their total points prop in four of their last five games against teams with middle-third defenses. As for the Senators, Stutzle, who led the team in points this year, is also projected to finish Under his points prop, but his line checks in at 0.5. The 23-year-old winger has just one single point this series, and the model projects him at 0.3 points for Saturday. He finished Under his points prop in four of his last five games when the Senators were favored.
